Does anyone know of any public demonstrations of a quantum computer breaking any standard cryptography?
Based on my limited understanding, AES is the easiest for a quantum computer to break and should be the first to go – the canary in the coal mine.
with respect to quantum computing, i think we should be open-minded to all possibilities – including the possibility that Quantum Supremacy could be nothing more than a psyop!
the real secret of quantum computing could be that the whole thing was a hilarious failure! ie the technology hit a wall and was unable to scale enough to be useful.
or... maybe it's legit. but without verification, we will never know and should not be intimidated into simply assuming that esoteric forces possess secret tech that can break crypto.
unless the claims of Quantum Supremacy can be publicly demonstrated, we should dismiss them as FUD!
and this FUD can cause significant harm. it could cause paranoid increases in key lengths to impractical levels. or it could even intimidate people away from using crypto altogether!
and that could be the objective of this psyop!
so i guess what i'm saying is: with respect to the claims of Quantum Supremacy, don't trust. verify.
As the saying goes, prediction is hard, especially about the future. It seems Google is very secretive so far about what they have achieved, which also makes prediction super hard
I would expect the traditional banking system to be far more at risk than bitcoin. The complexity in their setup and the slowness of their changes is far greater.
And if traditional banking is in severe trouble, I don't think Bitcoin will be your biggest problem. Suppose you have your bitcoins safe and sound and society crumbles around you.
It could be more than a little unpleasant with or without valuables.
Also, I don't expect a sudden drop of a cheap quantum chip that you can just plug into your old computer. There will likely be quite some time to adjust after we know some more details
Even if technology was there I would expect Google to milk the market for all it was worth, making it cost prohibitive short term to use it to just break strong crypto
