There were a lot of different models. The more purely mathematical models were more accurate. Likely due to them having the least assumptions when so much was still unknown.
Now with hindsight we know more. It was more airborne than a surface bug. Masks worked better than washing things. Contact tracing and testing was an effective strategy.
Since every nation did things a little different we can directly compare all the different types of responses. The more socially responsible populations did better.
