Create account

1319d · Bitcoin
It is better that this a coup rather than a civil war.
replied 1319d
It's a mistake to assume a split will total to 100% of the original. 50/50 or 60/40 is how you split a pie. Splitting a network may result in parts that are greater in sum than the
replied 1319d
parts (BTC/BCH - 100/15, 115%) or a result smaller than the whole (BCH/BSV - 33/22, 55%).


There are two effects to consider. The network effect whereby the value of the network is
replied 1319d
proportionate to its square. This effect argues against a split. The other effect is the extent to which unity is suppressing efforts of participants. This potential for a surge in
replied 1319d
activity on both sides after a split argues in favor of a split.


It is possible, if the suppressive effect has been strong enough, for a single side to emerge from a split more
replied 1319d
valuable than the unified whole.


Where there is a real conflict of vision - BCH/BTC for example, the parts were greater than the whole (115%). Where there is merely a contest for
replied 1319d
control - BCH/BSV, the parts sum to less than the whole(55%).


In a BCH/ABC split, there is a genuine conflict of vision and a large suppressive effect on effort on both sides. I'd
replied 1319d
guess we'll see the parts sum to greater than the whole, but this will depend on the value lost to the network effect. If the community/infra splits 50/50, this will be a big loss. If
replied 1319d
the community/infra splits 90/10, not so much.