Admittedly your predictions are well on their way, for now. I'm (pardon the pun) not buying it though.
People see the halvening as an event to create more scarcity, which should drive prices up. I see it as halving supply for which there is no organic demand.
It's entirely bound to speculation. Whether the supply is halved or not is essentially irrelevant long term to the market except to miners who depend on the block rewards.
There is no way to determine from the past what the future is going to do with the prices. There just isn't enough history.
